Novak, PE, and the sports-finance love affair
Good morning,
This cat may not have nine lives, but it has six prime minister-ships: Larry, who has lived at 10 Downing Street since 2011, has outlasted six PMs. His official title: Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office. He has the dignified demeanor to match.
After the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hit a three-year high, all eyes will be on Thursday’s jobs report — the last big labor print before the Fed’s July rate decision. Traders are pricing in ~30% odds of a hike next month. In today’s letter:
- Djokovic’s PE partnership highlights a growing relationship
- AI isn’t killing hiring (it’s the opposite), new Ramp research shows
- The “FIFA premium” in corporate travel
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Djokovic’s PE partnership highlights the growing tie between sports and finance
The ace of Wall Street: Tennis great Novak Djokovic is joining private equity firm General Atlantic as a strategic advisor. The 24-time Grand Slam champ (currently competing for his 25th title) will help the firm push deeper into sports, sports tech, and adjacent health-and-wellness investing. “Novak will work with our community of founders, portfolio companies, and investors,” the firm announced.
General Atlantic, which manages $126B in assets, already has several sports and sports-adjacent investments. These include a stake in Grupo Águilas (the parent of Mexico City’s Club América soccer team) and LiveMode, a Brazilian sports media agency focused on distribution solutions and revenue generation for sports entities.
A love-love relationship: Djokovic’s PE partnership highlights how the deep tie between private capital and sports is only growing deeper. Major leagues have eased ownership rules in recent years, starting with the MLB in 2019. Now:
- 75 major North American sports teams are PE-backed or PE-affiliated. Nearly a third of NBA and MLB teams are PE-backed.
Sports franchises have become an alternative asset class. Between 2019 and 2024 (the year the NFL eased ownership rules), PE firms invested more than $55B into sports-related assets, including leagues, media rights platforms, and fan engagement‑businesses. PE giant KKR buying sports-investment firm Arctos for $1.4B this year is a clear signal that sports have graduated from niche strategy to mainstream play.
It’s not your typical PE buyout model, since these institutional investors typically hold noncontrolling stakes. It’s less about restructuring the team itself, and more about scaling surrounding opportunities like distribution, broadcasting, sponsorships, and IP.
- The cumulative total returns of each of the major sports leagues have surpassed the returns of the S&P 500 since 2014, according to JPMorgan. Women’s leagues revenues are projected to triple by 2030.
- It’s not just pros: PE firms have been venturing into college and youth sports.
The bottom line:
The value of experiences is skyrocketing… This has been true ever since the pandemic left us glued to our screens with Cheeto-dusted fingers. Now, at a time when many things can be AI-generated, the premium on raw human struggle on a sports field has never been higher. The scarcity of franchises is a strength: supply is fixed, but demand keeps growing as live entertainment outperforms recorded media. Consumer sentiment towards experiences is outgrowing tangible goods by 1.5x so far in 2026, according to Bain. The tie between sports and finance will only grow deeper.
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Companies hire more after adopting AI, new Ramp research shows
Everyone wants to know how AI will affect jobs in the long-term.
You’ve seen the headlines of companies blaming AI for mass layoffs, but no one has had the right dataset to measure AI’s actual impact on jobs. Until now.
A new paper using firm-level spend data from Ramp paired with workforce records from Revelio Labs found something surprising. In a sample covering 21.5K+ U.S. firms:
- Companies that invest heavily in AI grow headcount 10% over the two years following adoption. Low-intensity adopters see no statistically significant change.
- Entry-level hiring grew even faster, up 12% over the two years following adoption at the companies making the largest AI investments.
Read the full findings from Ramp Economics Lab.
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Watercooler Data: the FIFA premium
Businesses aren't booking World Cup trips. They're booking regular business travel to corporate hubs like NYC and Atlanta that happen to be hosting the tournament.
Ramp Travel data shows companies are paying a premium for employee stays in host cities, even if their team offsite or client visit has nothing to do with soccer (sadly, usually the case).
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Signals Shortlist
- A ‘perfect storm’ points to a much smaller U.S. auto market by 2040 (CNBC)
- Comcast says it will spin off NBCUniversal (CNN)
- Silicon Valley is obsessed with ‘trust stacking,’ and the IRS doesn’t like it (The Wall Street Journal)
- Amazon’s Prime Day drives online sales in the US up 9.3% (Retail Dive)
- Bank of America flips the script, projects three Fed rate hikes this year (TheStreet)
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🗓️ Leading Events
Tuesday, June 30: JOLTS. U.S. Consumer Confidence. Earnings expected from Nike and Constellation Brands
Wednesday, July 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI. Earnings expected from General Mills and FactSet
Thursday, July 2: June jobs report
Friday, July 3: U.S. stock market closes early (1 PM EST) ahead of Independence Day
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