The job market paradox, plus AI spending caps

Leading Indicators
Rebecca Moretti
Editorial Lead

Good morning,

A recent bank merger has led to some beef: after Cincinnati lender Fifth Third acquired Texas-based Comerica Bank, employees at the newly-merged company are clashing over how to make chili. The synergies are spicy with this one.

In today’s edition:

  • Small businesses’ big paradox
  • The AI spending caps are starting
  • NYC’s counterintuitive coffee habit

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Small businesses want to hire, but they’re struggling to fill roles

While many prepare for vacation, work is dominating headlines. The government labor prints last week showed a paradox: Job openings hit a two-year high in the JOLTS report, but actual hiring isn't doing as hot. The U.S. added just 57K jobs in June, the lightest month since February’s labor market contraction.

  • Unemployment ticked down to 4.2%, but that was partly because the labor force participation rate dropped to the lowest level in 50 years (barring the early pandemic).
  • Meanwhile, the share of consumers who believe jobs are "hard to get" jumped to 22.5%, the highest since January 2021.

The discrepancy between openings and hires is highest among establishments with fewer than 10 employees. The vast majority of job openings this year have been at the BLS's three establishment-size categories below 250 employees. That’s not surprising, since smaller establishments have historically accounted for the bulk of private sector openings and hires. But the JOLTS survey now has a very low response rate (~24%), making openings more uncertain than in previous years.

The NFIB's June survey helps sketch in some context: 62% of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire, up 7 points from May. But 84% of those owners said they found few or no qualified applicants for the roles they were trying to fill, up 5 points.

We dug into Ramp data and found that small business adoption of recruiting software is up, but adoption of applicant tracking software is down.

  • From January 2025 through June 2026, SMB adoption of job-posting platform Indeed rose while adoption of applicant tracking systems Greenhouse, Employ, and Workable declined. The divergence was even more pronounced among businesses with 1–9 employees.
  • In contrast, enterprise adoption of both Indeed and ATS platforms increased over the same 18-month period. Note that these metrics show adoption rate relative to the vendors in the category — not absolute growth or decline.

The bottom line:

The small print has big implications. Small businesses employ nearly half of U.S. workers and account for over 40% of the nation’s GDP. Small business hiring is an indicator of future economic health. The good news: small businesses want to hire. The not-so-good news: a shrinking labor force, affordability pressures, and competition with larger employers on wages and benefits may be leaving many openings unfilled.

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Watch this space: the AI spend caps have landed

At the height of the tokenmaxxing era in April, we predicted that a corrective pullback may be around the corner. Now, as per-employee AI spend surges, several companies are starting to implement restrictions.

Tesla is reportedly capping its employees’ AI spend at $200 per person per week.

The $800/month allowance is still relatively high. According to Ramp data, the top 10% of AI adopting firms spend $611 per employee per month, and the median firm spends just $11.38.

But the cap itself is notable, since it comes shortly after an aggressive push to get workers on the AI train. Tesla is far from the only one trying to cut back on token spend.

After blowing through its full-year AI budget, Uber is limiting employees to $1.5K in monthly token spending per AI coding tool. Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Walmart are also among the companies that have implemented restrictions.

Ramp data shows that businesses' average monthly token spend 13x’d from January 2025 to January 2026.

Expect more businesses to start focusing on cost-cutting, whether by implementing spend caps or making changes on the backend (think: defaulting employees to more efficient models for smaller tasks).

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Watercooler Data: New Yorkers like it hot (always)

NYC coffee drinkers appear to be bucking a worldwide trend. While cold drinks account for roughly 60% of Starbucks’ global beverage sales, outpacing hot bevs across regions, New York workers prefer expensing hot drinks.

Ramp transaction data shows that in NYC, hot coffee purchases dominate iced orders for most of the year. Even in the sweltering heat of summer in the city, cold brews barely have a lead.

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Signals Shortlist

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🗓️ Leading Events

Tuesday, July 7: Not much ¯¯\_(ツ)_/¯¯

Wednesday, July 8: FOMC minutes. Earnings expected from Levi Strauss

Thursday, July 9: Earnings expected from PepsiCo and WD-40

Friday, July 10: Earnings expected from Delta

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Rebecca Moretti•Editorial Lead
As the Editorial Lead at Ramp, Rebecca focuses on melding original data with financial news to craft engaging stories that highlight leading indicators. Previously, Rebecca was the Senior Editor of Robinhood’s Snacks newsletter, which she helmed for five years, and was Senior Editor of SoFi’s On the Money newsletter.
Ramp is dedicated to helping businesses of all sizes make informed decisions. We adhere to strict editorial guidelines to ensure that our content meets and maintains our high standards.

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